Germany's Conservative Revolt Sends AfD to Record 29 Percent
The anti-immigration AfD party surges to a record 29 percent in new polling, eclipsing the faltering CDU-SPD coalition as German voters demand a political reset and abandon traditional center-right leadership.
German voters are rewriting the political map, and the ink is barely dry. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party reached a record 29 percent in a mid-May INSA poll, surpassing the collapsing CDU-SPD coalition at just 34 percent. The margin validates co-leader Alice Weidel's blunt prediction that "the political shift is inevitable." This seven-point lead over the Christian Democrats signals more than a routine poll fluctuation. It marks a dramatic realignment, as conservative Germans abandon the party that has governed as junior partner to the Social Democrats.
The numbers tell a story of a government losing its grip. The INSA survey conducted May 11-15 shows the CDU/CSU at just 22 percent, its worst result in over four years. Add the SPD at 12 percent, and the governing coalition sits at a mathematically impossible 34 percent. Parliamentary majorities have become unachievable. A separate Forsa poll reveals 87 percent of Germans are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Only 11 percent express satisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz after one year in office.
Merz's personal approval has collapsed to 15-16 percent, the lowest ever recorded for a German chancellor. Voters see no improvement over the past administration. Only 17 percent rate him better than his predecessor Olaf Scholz, while 42 percent consider him worse. The disconnect played out publicly on May 12, when trade union delegates booed Merz at a congress. The chancellor conceded the point. "We have simply failed to modernize our country," Merz admitted. Three days later at a Catholic convention, he acknowledged another deficit. "I know that I need to improve my communication so that this message is better understood."
The AfD's rise cuts across traditional demographic fault lines in a way that unsettles political analysts. Twenty-six percent of Catholics say they would vote for the party. Protestants stand at 27 percent. Among non-religious Germans, the number climbs to 30 percent. This cross-demographic appeal reveals a structural realignment rather than regional protest voting. Meanwhile, the German Catholic establishment excluded the AfD from its Catholic Days in Würzburg. The event instead promoted climate campaigns, gender issues, and queer-themed discussions.
Fractures within the CDU are widening as the party's right-leaning faction grows increasingly restless. Christian von Stetten, a CDU member of parliament, told a business audience the coalition would "definitely not" last its full four-year term. Even Merz has stopped defending the arrangement. In late April, the chancellor admitted that "no one can guarantee" the coalition's survival.
German voters are constructing concrete alternatives rather than merely registering a protest. Twenty-five percent want the AfD to provide the next chancellor, six points ahead of the CDU. When asked about coalition preferences, voters favor a CDU-AfD arrangement at 26 percent. The current CDU-SPD partnership garners only 23 percent. The arithmetic is clear. Voters are not just unhappy. They have decided where that unhappiness should go.
Analysts tracking the pattern describe the AfD as approaching its "20-30 moment," the threshold where insurgent parties transition from protest movements to plausible governing forces. France's National Rally and Italy's Fratelli d'Italia followed similar trajectories before entering government. The AfD now sits in that corridor.
Economic distress has accelerated the political shift. Industrial production has fallen nearly 15 percent from its peak. German factories pay €0.199 per kilowatt-hour for electricity, compared to $0.075 in the United States. The government halved its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 percent, citing fallout from the Iran war. Ordinary Germans feel the squeeze in their wallets and at the ballot box.
The next state elections in Saxony-Anhalt this September project the AfD at 41 percent. "The political shift is inevitable—we will put the interests of our country and our citizens back at the forefront," Weidel declared on May 18. The numbers confirm her conviction has become statistical reality, reshaping Europe's largest economy.