CBO: Border Enforcement Slashes Illegal Entries by Millions
The Congressional Budget Office revised its 2025 illegal immigration estimate downward by 1.5 million, crediting Trump administration border policies that eliminated catch-and-release practices and collapsed unauthorized crossings.
For decades, the political establishment insisted that securing the border required years of congressional debate. The Congressional Budget Office just proved them wrong.
The nonpartisan budget agency has revised its illegal immigration estimate for 2025 downward by 1.5 million people, crediting President Trump's border policies. The CBO found that more than 90 percent of the reduction came from limiting border crossings, while specific categories of releases fell 83 to 96 percent. The data delivers a definitive, numbers-driven victory for border security. Executive enforcement of existing laws successfully curtailed illegal immigration by ending the catch-and-release era.
The agency's January 2026 demographic outlook projected a net decrease of 360,000 illegal aliens in the U.S. population for 2025, completely reversing its prior projection of a 1.1 million increase. This 1.5 million downward revision directly challenges the establishment consensus that comprehensive congressional legislation is necessary to secure borders.
"The establishment political consensus has long held that it's impossible to rein in illegal immigration until Congress passes 'comprehensive immigration reform,'" wrote Jeffrey H. Anderson of City Journal. "The Congressional Budget Office has recently made clear that all it really takes is a president willing to enforce federal immigration laws, as he is constitutionally required to do."
The CBO explicitly attributes the dramatic reduction to "administrative actions taken since January 20, 2025," specifically highlighting Executive Order 14165. That order reinstated Migrant Protection Protocols requiring asylum seekers to wait in Mexico. It ended all categorical parole programs, terminated catch-and-release policies, and ceased use of the CBP One app for paroling.
The statistics reveal a near-total collapse of new illegal entries. Releases between ports of entry plummeted 96 percent, dropping from 540,000 in 2024 to just 20,000 in 2025. Releases at ports of entry fell 94 percent, from 960,000 to 60,000. Entries without inspection dropped 83 percent, from approximately 300,000 to 50,000.
These border control measures account for more than 90 percent of the total reduction in illegal immigration. Interior removals numbered just 120,000 in 2025, representing less than one-tenth of the 1.5 million downward revision. This data directly debunks the mainstream media narrative that deportations drove the administration's immigration success.
"The Trump administration almost immediately stopped the Biden administration's lawless practice of releasing illegal aliens into the U.S. interior," Anderson noted. Border Patrol went a full year without releasing apprehended migrants into the interior, according to Department of Homeland Security figures.
The CBO report reveals a stark contrast between immigration trajectories under different administrations. During three years of Biden-era policies from 2022 through 2024, the U.S. added an estimated 5.7 million illegal aliens to its population. Under Trump's projected three years from 2025 through 2027, the population of illegal aliens is expected to decrease by 1 million.
Census Bureau data shows net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024 before declining to 1.3 million in 2025. The agency projects it will fall to approximately 321,000 in 2026, continuing a sharp decline from the 2024 peak. The Census Bureau notes that net international migration is trending toward negative territory, which would mark the first time in more than 50 years if current trends continue.
DHS reported nearly 900,000 deportations and over 3 million total departures since January 2025, including an estimated 2.2 million self-deportations. Customs and Border Protection reported only 8,943 apprehensions in April 2026, a 94 percent drop from average monthly totals under the previous administration.
The long-term demographic impacts are significant. The CBO projects the U.S. population will stop growing in 2056 and remain roughly the same size as in the previous year. Without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030 as deaths exceed births.
The Senate Homeland Security Committee approved $23 billion in multiyear immigration enforcement funding in May, allocating $13 billion for CBP, $7.5 billion for ICE, and $2.5 billion for DHS. This institutional commitment reflects the proven effectiveness of border security measures.
Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has written that immigration detention requirements "are mandatory," citing the Immigration and Nationality Act's declaration that aliens asserting credible fear of persecution "shall be detained for further consideration" of asylum applications.
The CBO's nonpartisan analysis demonstrates that border security is a solvable problem when leadership enforces existing laws. The empirical success of Trump's enforcement-first strategy stands in stark contrast to the chaotic, open-border policies of the previous administration.