Iran Now Run by Military Junta
U.S. intelligence confirms Iran's Supreme Leader may be too broken to rule, while Revolutionary Guard generals have seized control of the fractured nation following devastating strikes.
The man named Iran's Supreme Leader has not appeared publicly since March 9, and U.S. intelligence says he may be too broken to rule. The real power now rests with a shadowy cabal of Revolutionary Guard generals who survived America's decapitation campaign and operate the country like a warlord syndicate.
Russia's ambassador to Tehran confirmed Tuesday that Mojtaba Khamenei remains in Iran but avoids public appearances "for understandable reasons." The statement offered little clarity about what actually happens behind Iran's closed doors.
Mojtaba Khamenei was never a credible religious or political figure. The 56-year-old son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei held no government office and possessed only mid-ranking clerical credentials. His father's decades of established authority stand in stark contrast to his son's hollow appointment.
Key institutions of the Islamic Republic have been decimated by U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Supreme National Security Council, Intelligence Ministry, and IRGC Navy lost their leaders in targeted operations that eliminated dozens of senior officials. The strikes left only IRGC hardliners in surviving positions of power.
Two men now function as Iran's de facto rulers. Ahmad Vahidi commands the IRGC's force and its vast economic empire, while Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr controls national security as head of what remains of the Supreme National Security Council. Both appointments occurred in March as the military consolidated control.
U.S. officials admit they have "no evidence" that Mojtaba Khamenei is giving orders. "It's beyond weird," a senior U.S. official told Breitbart on March 23. "We don't think the Iranians would have gone through all this trouble to choose a dead guy as the supreme leader, but at the same time, we have no proof that he is taking the helm."
Mojtaba's post-appointment actions appear as scripted gestures. His letters to Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem and messages to Iraqi officials function as manufactured continuity, analysts say. The letters followed a March 20 Nowruz message designating the year as "Resistance Economy under National Unity," all delivered through state media without personal appearances.
President Donald Trump issued a blunt assessment of the leadership vacuum. "I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodriguez] in Venezuela," Trump told Axios in March. The president added, "He's going to have to get approval from us. If he doesn't get approval from us, he's not going to last long," in a separate statement to ABC News.
Trump expressed open dissatisfaction with the leadership selection, telling Fox News in March, "I am not happy." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described Mojtaba Khamenei as "wounded and likely disfigured" from the Feb. 28 strike that killed his father, mother, and wife.
U.S. forces have struck more than 11,000 targets in Iran since Feb. 28, according to CENTCOM data. The campaign devastated Iran's military infrastructure, destroying 150 ships and reducing ballistic missile launches by 90 percent, according to military officials.
The IRGC's economic dominance now extends across Iran's major sectors. Through entities like Khatam al-Anbia Construction Headquarters, the military controls banking, shipping, manufacturing, and direct oil exports that bypass the National Iranian Oil Company. The organization commands upward of 190,000 troops plus 600,000 Basij paramilitary volunteers.
"Mojtaba Khamenei does not appear in public, but we also have reliable indications that he does not control or lead the regime or what has been left of the regime," said Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies. He described the current Iranian leadership as "broken, confused and almost misfunctioning."
Michael echoed that assessment, stating, "The new leader is an empty entity." He added, "The current Iranian leadership is broken, confused and is almost misfunctioning."
Shayan Samii, an Iranian political analyst, stated bluntly, "In reality, the IRGC is running the show. These figures who appear in front of the cameras are often the face presented to the public, but the real decisions are made within the security apparatus."
The power shift represents the culmination of years of IRGC consolidation. "The gradual consolidation of IRGC control at the expense of the clergy has accelerated since the June 2025 war," Ali Alfoneh of the Arab Gulf States Institute noted. The organization has fused Shia Islamism with Iranian nationalism while tolerating greater personal freedoms, though it continues to restrict political rights.
Ali Akbar Mousavi Khoeini of George Mason University identified the new power structure. "The power is in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard and the most radical faction of the Revolutionary Guard," Khoeini said. "Vahidi is in charge of the country. Ghalibaf doesn't have the strength to confront him."
The Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei under rushed, intimidated conditions on March 8. The 88-member clerical body convened amid military pressure, establishing a constitutional precedent mirroring the 1989 succession that accommodated Ali Khamenei's selection despite his junior religious standing.
An anonymous senior Arab official warned of the new regime's character. "The IRGC are taking over Iran and they are crazy," the official said. "They are highly ideological and are ready to die and meet Khamenei Senior."
The transformation from theocracy to military dictatorship complicates any negotiated peace. The regime no longer answers to religious legitimacy but to revolutionary militarism, with loyalty directed toward power rather than ideology. Trump's demand for U.S. approval of Iran's leadership stands as the only credible check on the junta's survival.
"The IRGC no longer seeks to preserve the Islamic Republic — it has replaced it with a military dictatorship," said Zineb Riboua of the Hudson Institute. "As with every revolutionary state, the ideology is in service of power."